CNBNews

FDU Poll Finds Ciattarelli Leads in Republican Nomination Fight

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, March 6, 2025 – Compared to the dogfight in the Democratic gubernatorial nomination contest, the equally important race for the Republican nomination has one candidate – the 2021 nominee, former State Representative Jack Ciattarelli – well ahead of his opponents in nearly all measures. The latest FDU Poll of New Jersey voters contains a subsample of 430 Republicans, and among these voters, there are signs that Ciattarelli’s lead is tenuous, especially among the MAGA voters making up an increasing share of the Party.

Among the four leading Republican candidates for Governor, Ciattarelli has a commanding lead in both name recognition and favorability among self-identified Republicans. Seventy-eight percent of Republicans in the state say that they recognize the former assemblyman, and 39 percent say that they have a favorable view of him. The other candidates polled – talk show host Bill Spadea, former State Senator Ed “The Trucker” Durr and former assemblyman John Bramnick – all have similar levels of favorability, at around 20 percent of Republicans, with lower levels of name recognition. Among these, Spadea has the highest name recognition – 54 percent – but this doesn’t translate into higher favorability ratings for the former Republican congressional nominee.

“The fact that Ciatterelli has run before means that voters know who he is, but he also has much higher unfavorables than the other Republicans in the race,” said Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the executive director of the Poll. “He’s currently in the strongest position, but these numbers show how tenuous that advantage is.”

In a primary election, only members of a party get to vote, so whether voters are Democrats or Republicans matters less than ideological groups within those parties. The largest ideological group in New Jersey are self-described moderates: 38 percent of Democrats and 21 percent of Republicans say that they’re moderate, but they’re outnumbered in the Republican Party by conservatives (53 percent of Republicans) and MAGA voters (46 percent of Republicans).

While Spadea’s role as a radio host seems to have translated into greater name recognition than some of his opponents, it has not meant greater levels of favorability: fully 22 percent of Republicans say that they know who he is, but don’t have an opinion about him either way. Given that only 54 percent of Republicans recognize Spadea, this indicates that he has failed to make an impression on a bit less than half of the Republicans who recognize him, despite his media platform.

“The large number of Republicans who don’t have an opinion about Spadea means that he has room to grow his support,” said Cassino. “But to do that, he’ll have to break through in media coverage, something that’s proving hard for everyone in the race.”

One warning sign for Ciattarelli comes in his unfavorablity ratings among MAGA voters. While Ciattarelli has higher favorablity numbers among this group – 45 percent – he also has much higher unfavorability numbers, at 17 percent. In contrast, only 10 percent of MAGA voters say that they have a negative view of Spadea.

Dividing up Republicans by ideology shows a clear division between conservative and MAGA voters versus the less numerous moderates in the Party. Ciattarelli leads in favorability among the self-identified MAGA and conservative voters who make up the majority of the Party, but the race is much tighter among moderates. Among this group, his net favorability – favorable minus unfavorable –  is tied with Spadea and Durr, despite his much higher name recognition.

“Bramnick has been banking on a revival of the moderate lane in the Party, but it doesn’t seem to be getting him anywhere yet,” said Cassino. “It’s not clear if there are enough moderates left in the Party to balance out the growing number of MAGA supporters.”

Traditionally, older voters are more likely to vote in primaries than younger ones, and among the oldest voters, Ciattarelli is seen much more favorably than his opponents. A majority (54 percent) of Republicans 65 and over have favorable views of the 2021 nominee, compared to just 13 percent among his closest competitor in this group, Bramnick. Among Republicans under the age of 45, Ciattarelli, Spadea and Durr are essentially tied in favorability, even given Ciatterilli’s lead in name recognition.

“Young Republicans in the state just don’t look like older ones: they’re much more likely to be MAGA voters and even describe themselves as libertarian or nationalist,” said Cassino. “If they turn out in large numbers, this is a very different race than one that’s dominated by older voters.”

Name recognition and favorability are imperfect measures of electoral support, as many Republicans have favorable views of multiple candidates: the fact that a candidate has higher favorability does not necessarily mean that he will do better in a primary election. However, favorability can be seen as an upper limit on a candidate’s support, as well as a measure of the extent to which a candidate has successfully been able to market themselves to a statewide audience. A model that looked at likely voters – rather than all Republicans, as in this poll –  would provide more clarity, but in the absence of a recent competitive primary election in New Jersey that such a model could be based on, any likely voter model necessarily contains a great deal of uncertainty.

SOURCE: Newjerseymonitor.com

FDU Poll Finds Ciattarelli Leads in Republican Nomination Fight