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Murphy’s Lead Weakens in NJ Governor Election

Betting Odds Ahead of First Debate


–Jack Ciattarelli Improves as Phil Murphy Worsens According to Political Oddsmakers– Image001

Copenhagen – September 28, 2021 – Phil Murphy’s odds to be re-elected have worsened over the summer, according to betting aggregators (See Disclaimer Below). In June, his odds to win the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election were 1/10 (90.9% implied probability), but they’ve since shifted to 2/9 (81.8%).

“Murphy still holds a significant lead, and is the odds-on favorite to be the first Democratic governor of New Jersey to be re-elected in over 40 years, but the odds are showing a downward trend,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Ciattarelli is starting to build more momentum according to the betting markets, but he still has a long way to go to overtake murphy.”

While Murphy’s worsened, Jack Ciattarelli’s odds to win the election have improved. Since June, Ciattarelli’s odds shifted from 13/2 (13.3% implied probability) to 4/1 (20%).    

“Betting odds recently predicted the California recall more accurately than polls, as the odds more strongly predicted a Newsom win,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “At the moment, betting odds are also showing Murphy as a stronger favorite than the polls are indicating.”

Last week’s Monmouth University poll listed Murphy with a 51% to 38% lead, a small shift from a 52% to 36% lead in August. However, betting odds give Murphy an 81.8% implied chance of winning, which is much stronger than Ciattarelli’s 20% implied probability.


Odds to Win 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election:


Current Odds

Odds from One Month Ago

Phil Murphy

2/9 (-450)

1/10 (-1000)

Jack Ciattarelli

13/2 (+650)

4/1 (+400)

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.

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