Heading into Week 15, home teams are losing more but are covering the spread at exactly same rate, according to TheLines
(LAS VEGAS) — The first 14 weeks of the 2020 NFL season might be remembered most for its empty or near-empty stadiums, which forced oddsmakers to adjust to factor in what has been presumably less of a home-field advantage. What is remarkable, though, is how well oddsmakers have done in making those adjustments, according to analysts from TheLines.com.
A consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet, PlaySugarHouse, BetMGM, Unibet, and William Hill — shows nine home favorites and seven road favorites for Week 15. But is picking the road team a safer play this season than in season’s past?
Straight up, home teams have won 50.5% (103-101-1) of the season’s games through Sunday. That is down from games played since 2010, a stretch when home teams have won 56.6% of their games (1,602-1,226-8). Against the spread is another matter, though. Home teams are 100-105 this year, covering at a rate of 48.78%. Since 2010, home teams are 1,346-1,415-75. The home-team win percentage? 48.78%.
“The oddsmakers, and the betting market as a whole, have adjusted with stunning precision to a season like none other,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “There may have been an opportunity early in the season to catch a line that is out of balance, but as the season goes on it becomes more difficult.”
The consensus point spreads for Week 15 and remaining Week 14 games, as of Monday, Dec. 14:
- Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Cleveland Browns; over/under 45.5
- Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3); over/under 54.5
- Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Denver Broncos; over/under 48
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-8.5); over/under 51
- Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3); over/under 46
- Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (-8.5); over/under N/A
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7); over/under 52.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-13); over/under N/A
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-2); over/under 42
- San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys; over/under 45.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Atlanta Falcons; over/under 51
- Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) at Washington Football Team; over/under 43.5
- New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams (-16.5); over/under 44.5
- Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5); over/under 48
- Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at New Orleans Saints; over/under 51.5
- Cleveland Browns (-4) at New York Giants; over/under N/A
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-12) at Cincinnati Bengals; over/under 41.5
TheLines.com is a leading source for news, analysis, and research related to the market for regulated sports betting in the United States. Affiliated with the PlayUSA.com Network, TheLines.com provides original daily reporting and offers player advocacy tools related to the advancement of safe, licensed, and legal online sports betting. Based in Las Vegas, the PlayUSA Network is independently owned and operated, with no affiliations to any casino — commercial, tribal, online, or otherwise.