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Primary Analysis from Gender Watch 2018

 
Screen Shot 2017-08-17 at 17.50.43CNBNews graphics file
 
 
With some results still pending, the team at Gender Watch 2018, a project of the Center for American Women and Politics and the Barbara Lee Family Foundation, offers some initial takeaways on how women fared in tonight's primary races.
 
New York: The biggest story for the evening is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez unseating long-time Democratic incumbent and Queens machine politician Joe Crowley. The 28 year-old Bronx native, should she win in November, would become only the second Latina in history to represent New York in the U.S. Congress.
 
"'Women like me aren't supposed to run for Congress,' Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said as she launched her campaign, but tonight she showed that women like her - young, Latina, and not part of the establishment - are upending long-held expectations about who belongs in political office."
                    - Kelly Dittmar, Gender Watch 2018 Project Director and CAWP Scholar
Ocasio-Cortez also becomes the third non-incumbent Latina to win a Democratic nomination in a safely Democratic district in 2018, signaling potential gains in Latina congressional representation next year. For context, just nine Latinas are currently serving as U.S. Representatives, and only twelve have served in history.
 
Colorado: Colorado has never elected a woman governor, and Cary Kennedy and Donna Lynne were both defeated tonight by Jared Polis in the Democratic primary; the state will have to keep waiting for its first woman governor. Women won four of seven Democratic nominations for the U.S. House, though only incumbent Representative Diane DeGette (D) is favored to win this fall.
 
Maryland: Maryland is one of 11 states that currently has no women representing the state in Congress. That seems unlikely to change in 2019. Both women who won congressional nominations on Tuesday - Liz Matory (R-MD02) and Amie Hoeber (R-MD06) - are running in districts that strongly favor their Democratic opponents.
 
Oklahoma: Connie Johnson, the sole woman running to replace Governor Mary Fallin, was defeated in her Democratic primary bid on Tuesday night. Oklahoma has only ever sent two women to Congress, and three women - all Democrats - will advance to runoff contests for the U.S. House this year. Amanda Douglas (OK-01), Mary Brannon (OK-04), and Kendra Horn (OK-05), like many women candidates this year, would advance from their runoffs to face strongly-favored opponents in the general election. For more on how to define victory for the surge of women candidates this year, see the Gender Watch 2018 post "How to Measure Success for Women Candidates in Election 2018".
 
Watch Gender Watch 2018's Analysis page tomorrow morning for more in-depth data and commentary about the June 26th primary and how women candidates have fared tonight and throughout the 2018 election season.

 

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