NEWS, SPORTS, COMMENTARY, POLITICS for Gloucester City and the Surrounding Areas of South Jersey and Philadelphia

After A Week in the Desert, Family of Four Rescued
CNB Crime: Resident's Tip Results in Arrest

CNB October 2012 Archives: Presidential Election Prediction (The Day of Reckoning for the GOP: Part 2)

published Tuesday, October 16, 2012

In explaining why I believe this chain of events is a long-term positive for the GOP, I wrote: "The debate about the importance of the Liberty movement within the Republican Party would come to the forefront of the intra-party conversation, as the GOP's future success will depend in significant part on the support of a growing number of liberty-minded voters.  A loss in this election cycle will force Party leaders to reexamine the GOP's future and come to a reckoning with the Liberty movement.  They will do so because Ron Paul's mission has everything the GOP needs to succeed in the years to come and Party leaders have begrudgingly begun to realize his messages' value in gaining young enthusiastic supporters, reasoned principles that attract Independent voters, creative grassroots activists, and a large internet presence."

The graphic I created above also briefly depicts what I think will happen in the weeks and months following Romney's election loss.  A number of GOP establishment wonks will blame libertarians for snatching victory from Governor Romney's campaign by splitting some of his vote with Gary Johnson. Libertarians will also be blamed, by those same wonks, for allowing President Obama to proceed with his "socialist agenda."

A number in the GOP will hold onto this excuse, like blaming a referee for a loss in a close game, while completely disregarding the fact that if Romney had been a stronger candidate - with inviting ideas and initiatives other than not being Obama - he would have won hands-down against a sitting President who holds a dismal economic recovery record and an over 8% unemployment rate (not to mention Obamacare).  They will turn a blind eye to the fact that Romney's flip-flopping, lack of steadfast principles and tepid convictions are what turned many voters away from his campaign (aside from insulting 47% of Americans).

But the smart members of the Republican Party - the truly shrewd, perceptive, and far-thinking political chess players - will see how the liberty movement has broad appeal to young people (those who will be asked to support the Party in the future), disenfranchised Democrats and Independent voters.  Libertarian principles, being centered around the concept of Fiscally Responsible and Socially Accepting, fit the self-characterization of an overwhelming number of Americans - not to mention minorities that don't see a place for themselves inside the current GOP.

Those in the GOP with true foresight will see the benefits of incorporating the libertarian principles of protecting individual rights, civil liberties, private property, a strong currency, peace, and personal freedom as a way to access the support of more voters.  They will also learn to stray away from the morally and politically hypocritical zealots who are driving the Party farther and farther to the Right-Wing fanaticism that has so damaged the Party's fortunes over this past decade.

If this happens as I believe it will, than the words of Woodrow Wilson (strange, I know, that I would cite a central planning - statist progressive here) will ring true: "I would rather lose in a cause that will someday win than win in a cause that will someday lose." The GOP will recover from the loss, be much stronger in 2016, and advance with the ability to put more sought after swing voters back into play. 

So what if I am wrong in my prediction?  What if Romney squeaks out a win and somehow gets to 270 electoral votes to be our next President?  Well, aside from thanking his Mormon Prophet for a whopper of a miracle, I would think if he wants to remain in the Presidency longer than George H.W. Bush he will need to make serious strides to draw libertarians and the supporters of the liberty movement toward his causes. 

If anything, Mitt Romney is like a chameleon - in the sense that he adapts to his political environment to survive.  He will not be foolish enough to expect a electoral miracle twice (twofer miracles were all used up on George W. Bush) and will look for energetic and motivated activists to gather around him in solidifying a broader range of support. 

In order to get anything past a fiercely divided Congress, Romney will need the support of those in the House and the Senate (like Rand Paul, Mike Lee and Justin Amash to name a few) who can appeal to fiscally conservative and socially liberal members in both Parties and in both chambers.

Either way, I think the liberty movement that Ron Paul started - and Gary Johnson is continuing - has gained enough inertia that it will continue growing stronger as it finds youth, reason and time on its side.  If the GOP has not learned any lessons from this past Primary fight, if it hasn't seen the potential in the liberty movement, if it hasn't seen opportunities to strengthen the Party for decades to come, than they are truly foolish and condemned to be a Party of lessening significance.


reader said...

Will, I disagree, though you are very well thought out on the things you say, in my opinion Now is not the time to split the vote. Right now it is not a matter of race it is not a matter of democrat or republican it is a matter of the future Of America and all her citizens. We are 16 plus trillion dollars in the red and spiraling upward out of control, according to unemployment figures with new public assistance records and people whos unemployment has just run out the actual unemployment rate stands around 14.7%, and if nothing is done by january and we go off the cliff unemployment will rise to between 22'5 and 25% the same as it was in the depression. This election is one of the most inportant in this countrys history, it is a matter of alternatives not party right now and the only realistic alternative to what we are dealing with right now is Mitt Romney and the republican party. Will I know you to be an honest man of principles but during a crisis even men of principles must do what is right for the country and I believe this is one of those crisis. We all need to stand togather as one republican party with many diverse groups, the more diverse the more ideas,more fairness, and more liberty. So in my opinion Will I ask you to reconsider your stand at this time in history, and unite with your party to stop what is happening to America right now.

CNBNewsnet said...


I admire you for sticking to your principals. However in the real world a Third Party candidate has a much chance of winning the office of president as you do. It is not going to happen ever in my lifetime or yours.

The reason is simple big money controls who runs for the office. That is a fact.

It has been this way since the Tammany Hall days of the mid 1800's.

As for Romney being a chameleon, check the records of others who ran for the office and you'll find they all break their campaign promises once elected. Who can forget Bush Sr. famous quote, "Read my lips". Look at Obama he has broken every promise he made.

If you want to change the way politics function the only way to make a difference is from within the Party be it Democrat or Republican. Tea Party Republicans are a good example of people who have made a significant difference by working within the two Party system.

We need dreamers Wil so who knows maybe you are right. Time will only tell.

Best regards,

Michael Kazmar said...

Men and women across the nation voted in the Republican primaries with the resounding result placing Mitt Romney as the GOP standard-bearer. Romney would have been a stronger candidate than McCain in 2008.
Just because Gary Johnson (or Ron Paul, for that matter) is not the candidate, it doesn't mean Romney isn't a liberty-minded choice for president.
Conservative Republicans (such as myself) and TEA Party followers are on the side of Romney, and they are certainly liberty-minded individuals. Hopefully some "Reagan Democrats" out there will jump on the Romney side.
Voting third party would be foolish when the intended result for Republicans is to eject Obama from office.
We get it Wil.
You do not care for Romney. I hope you dislike Obama as much.
Johnson may have his time in future years but his time is not right now. He doesn't have the financial support or voter support. He may even have some good ideas.
But for 2012, it's
Romney/Ryan... better Americans for a better America!

Account Deleted said in reply to CNBNewsnet...

Bill -

You wrote: "The reason is simple big money controls who runs for the office. That is a fact. It has been this way since the Tammany Hall days of the mid 1800's. As for Romney being a chameleon, check the records of others who ran for the office and you'll find they all break their campaign promises once elected."

So, If I understand your points correctly:

* A vote for either of the two-party candidates is a vote for a Tammany Hall style, Big Money chosen liar?

* I should vote for Romney because he is the better of the two Big Money Chosen Liars?

Did I miss something, cause I think you meant to say something else.


Account Deleted said in reply to reader...


Thank you for the compliments. I respect your opinions too.

In desperate times, when the Country is suffering, men and women of principle should lie to themselves and unite behind someone they don't believe in so they can vote against someone else they also don't believe in? How exactly does that fix our problems and, if I did that, would I still be able to consider myself a man of principle?

Republicans had the House of Representatives, the Senate and the White House for more than half of this past decade and during that time they racked up trillions in deficit spending and debt. The Democrats had it all for two years and they too raised the debt by trillions more. Over the last two years, Democrats and Republicans have shared power in Washington and the debt still continues to climb by trillions. And all the while WE - ALL OF US - are getting crushed by the costs of war, joblessness, rising prices, falling values, and are left with a bleaker future.

Every election we are told, by both sides, how their opponent is the worst person walking on two legs and that THIS election is the most crucial electoral decision ever...until the next election rolls along. So I ask you, when exactly will it be a good time to vote for a third party candidate you believe in at the rate our two-party system is damaging this nation - when we have hit rock-bottom bankruptcy?

I am entirely unwilling to give either Romney or Obama my vote. I am siding with the individual who inspires me, who shares my values, my principles and my beliefs. I am voting for the man whose plan I can see actually working to bring this Nation out of the dull-drums and back to prosperity, and that candidate is Gary Johnson.

Account Deleted said in reply to Michael Kazmar...

Yes, I dislike Obama's progressive statism agenda more than Romney's progressive rhetoric.

As for your comment: "Voting third party would be foolish when the intended result for Republicans is to eject Obama from office."

I thought the intended result for Republicans was to get Americans back to work, to grow the economy, to reduce the size and interference of Government, to cut spending, to cut taxes, to eliminate the debt, to keep the Nation safe, to increase domestic energy availability and reduce foreign energy dependence, to stabilize social security, to resolve immigration concerns, to create competition in the healthcare system to help lower costs, to protect our Constitutional rights and defend our freedoms.

Where is the depth of solutions, insightful ideas, innovative thinking, a detailed vision that inspires Americans to elect Romney our next leader on these issues, as someone who will drive our economic recovery and take our Nation back to prosperity? He doesn't seem to want to commit and show firm principles, he just presents himself as the Anti-Obama candidate. His record doesn't match his rhetoric, and that greatly concerns me. It's as if we have very, very few differences between Obama and Romney on too many important issues.

And there in lies the problem for the GOP. Republicans criticize Democrats of blindly voting straight down the ticket, when in fact, it is Republicans who vote straight down the party line 85% of the time as opposed to the Democrat's 60% of the time. They have to start holding the rhetoric of those in office, and those running for office, up to their records and separate the fact from the fiction.

Michael Kazmar said in reply to Account Deleted...

With the election of Mr. Romney, many or all of those intentions can and will be addressed. Deposing Obama as president is the first step, along with holding the House and hopefully (fingers crossed) flipping the Senate. The major reason for the DC gridlock we see now (ie: no budget for almost 1400 days) is the Senate, led by Harry Reid, the Nevada Democrat. The GOP-led House has passed many budget bills, while the Senate stonewalls them.
This country is in a bad spot. Our current president has made things much worse. He cannot run on his poor record, so he tries to diminish his opponent with lies and deceit.
Will this country be better off continuing with the current president? In my opinion, the answer is a clear "no."
Our economy is the most important issue right now. A vibrant, growing economy is essential to all of us, here in the US and throughout the world.
Romney is a proven problem solver. His experience and success in the business world is proof of that. I like his all-American backstory. Romney is a fine candidate. I feel very comfortable advocating for Romney, as with Congressman Ryan.
The Romney/Ryan ticket is the commson sense choice in 2012.

reader said in reply to Account Deleted...

Will,With all due respect here you yourself have changed candidates, before Gary Johnson you were all about Ron Paul, both good men with good ideas,but I have to agree with Mike Kazmar on this one. Mitt was chosen by republicans as the candidate for the republican party, which up til a month or so ago you were chairmen of here in g city. You have proven yourself as a flexable person on these matters so why so rigid about the republican party now, What happened? Don't get me wrong Will I know all about your stand on liberty, but I truely believe change comes from within. You and I are both blue collar hard working middle class people who have done things their own way and have made our lives ,our families lives friends,fellow citizens,and people in need lives better all within the guidelines of what ever party was in power. All I'm saying is to try to put your efforts where they do the most good for all. Many times I helped in matters I didn't want to get into but it needed to be done so I helped, things did get done and wheather I agreed with it or not I came out the better person because of my efforts. There were many who took advantage of my efforts ,who could have taken care of themselves with ease, but in that croud were true people who were hurting do to things beyond their control and those were the ones I was working for, and I did help them. At the time I truely felt I had compromised my beliefs, but as Time went on I realized that by bending a little I had made myself a better person with a wider understanding of people and myself. We as a country cannot afford to continue on Obama's path to Greece. If Romney is elected you will see a much needed push from the people, forward to help get things moving again. If Obama is elected and he continues on this path, there will be no need for a third party if there is an economic meltdown. So you vote the way your heart tells you Will that is your right and I will respect and defend it to my last breath, but before you go into that booth I ask you to look at your fellow citizens faces and ask yourself if your vote is going where it will do the most good. In my opinion this is the difference between principles and the right thing, if they are the same thing than great but if there different than it's a tough choice. Good Luck.

CNBNewsnet said...

I meant every word.

Obama has raised close to a billion dollars and so has Romney. I bet they spend every penny before Nov.6.

How can an unknown/third party candidate compete let alone win the election?

I would like to see a strong 3rd party evolve someday but I am a realist. I don't believe it will happen anytime soon.

I am also a independent, I vote for the person not the party. In 2008 I supported Obama, I wont be supporting him this time. Under his leadership the country has accumulated a $16 trillion debt, that figure increases every day. Unemployment is too high, gas prices are too high, food prices are too high, etc. If you are living on a fix income you have to do without to survive. I blame Obama for these problems. Sure Romney has faults but he also has a lot of good points. I realize we are never going to find a candidate that is perfect.

Reading your remarks Wil reminds me of something my father told me long ago. He said, “Members of both Parties will have their spats during the year. Come the November election the Democrats will forget their petty differences and support the nominee no matter what. Not the Republicans. They carry their silly feud/difference right into the voting booth.”


10 said...

Hey guys...FYI...Gary Johnson will be on

Glenn Beck's new TV network tonight at 7:00 EDT
on Dish channel 212 or at the above website

I'll watch on the computer as I am a subscriber.
Great channel and right on topic

Account Deleted said in reply to reader...


I believe in the liberty message and when Congressman Ron Paul did not become the GOP's nominee, I gave my support to the only Liberty candidate on the ballot - because they are nearly identical in their ideals, principles and message.

Gary Johnson said it himself, if he thought Ron Paul was going to be the GOP's nominee he would not have stayed in the race. The message is liberty. That is why I support him today, because he is the only liberty candidate on the ballot. I have met the man, know his plan and agree with his positions. One of which is what you and Bill talk about in your comments above - HOW TO HELP THE PEOPLE ON FIXED INCOMES WHO ARE SUFFERING.

Both Democrats and Republicans ignore the most serious reason why our prices are rising and families on fixed incomes are hurting - The devaluing of the U.S. Dollar. Has Mitt Romney or Barack Obama talked about the plummeting value of the Dollar under the policies of the Federal Reserve? Not that I have seen. Obama supports Ben Bernanke's plans and Mitt Romney talks about replacing him but, neither face this problem directly.

Every time the Fed issues new money, creates new debt, lowers interest rates artificially, buys up more failed mortgages and loans hundreds of billions it doesn't have, it lowers the value of the U.S. Dollar. Each dollar has an equivalent specific amount that represents a portion of total economic output and, like any commodity, when you increase the supply too high and too quickly, the value goes down. The Fed has pumped trillions of new dollars into the marketplace, each time devaluing our currency further.

So it takes more dollars, valued less, to pay for the same amount of goods and services as it did before. Notice when they talk about energy prices, how both candidates can argue the same point but not understand the fault at the heart of the issue. Yes, the U.S. has less refineries but its domestic production is up. Consumer demand was down but the prices went up - why? Because Oil, world-wide, is traded in U.S. currency. Reduce the value of each dollar and it now takes more dollars to pay for the same amount of oil. Thus, that price increase on resources gets passed along to consumers.

This is a major factor in the rising cost of living. Obama and Romney talk about fixing the economy by spending more or by not cutting much at all, yet they ignore the plummeting value of our currency, which makes the situation worse.

This is a principle of economic liberty and how our Government is violating our economic rights. It is also one of the many reasons why I do not think either of the two candidates have a clue on how to fix our economy because it all starts with the value of the dollar.

So I disagree Dan. As I see it, the principle is the right thing to do. Strengthen the currency, reduce the debt, expand economic liberty, cut deficit spending and people who are suffering will receive relief.

reader said...

Will,I say again you are entitled to your opinions and I will defend your right to have them until my last breath, but unfortunately there will be only one winner Romney or Obama. I'll go with Romney because he has said he plans to grow the economy,lower the debt,cut the deficit and the size of government, but there is one thing I can say about Mitt Romney he has done it on a smaller scale before and I feel he is the most experienced man we have for the job right now. As I'm sure you see Will our objectives are the same it is just a difference of pathways we want to take to get there.

Michael Kazmar said...

I watched WILKOW on TheBlaze TV as Gary Johnson was the special guest. Johnson, the former governor of the state of New Mexico, is the Liberatrian Party candidiate and is on the ballot in 48 states.
A nice guy. Nothing super special, but he is a self-made man.
I don't agree with him on gay marriage (aka marriage equality; he is for it) and his stance on immigration policy.
I liked his positions om gun control and the role of a smaller government.
I was really intrigued on his view of the "fair" tax or consumption tax. Although his idea of a 23% tax was pretty high, it was explained that having no other taxes in the product or on the company manufacturing the product (no corporate taxes either), it would bring the cost of the product down to the point where the tax would actually be revenue neutral. States would collect the taxes to give to the Fed, as the IRS would be abolished.
However, I wouldn't vote for him because of his stances on gay marriage and immigration. I do not agree with him and with a clear conscience could not cast my vote for Johnson.
But give The Blaze TV kudos for at very least bringing him on and giving him exposure.

distressed by folly said...

I had this 'discussion' with someone at Rutgers who called me ignorant when I said Johnson cannot win.

If the man does not have a chance of winning the election and becoming president, voting "on principle" will only give the election to the man who should not retain the office. Retaining obama is a grave mistake, and will be caused by splitting the conservative ticket. It's not time for grandstanding. Work within the party; yes, it may take too much time, but we cannot afford another term of obama's tactics and agenda. Those who take a vote FROM the Republican party will share the blame if we have to endure more of that.

reader said...

Will, now that the election is over and the results are in, I would like to say it will be more of a day of reckoning for the democratic party than the republicans. It is now very clear that the democrats had no plan or a clue as to what to do about this mess they created. They were clearly thinking they would lose so they let everything go so Mitt Romney and the republicans would get the blame for the countries bad state. Shock the democrats won and now they don';t know what to do to fix it.This mess is now squarly where it belongs, on Obama's shoulders and it will be him and his party who history will blame for the lack of a plan to fix things. Sure they will say the republicans did it by not reaching a middle ground but in reality it must be the president who must create middle ground in order to get this country moving again. He is the commander and chief and it is his job to bring order back and to push this country off it's lazy butt and get it moving again. So as I see it Mitt Romney's loss will hurt the democrat party way more than the GOP. We'll see in two years who the country holds at fault.

Account Deleted said in reply to reader...


I understand what you are saying. I have three responses.

1. I was spot-on with my predictions. The GOP failed to appreciate the value of the liberty movement's message and got torched. Now they are grumbling that maybe they should have listened to the rising, energetic, grassroots, libertarian wing of the Party because it just happens to appeal to civil liberties, individual rights, the fiscally responsible and the socially tolerant - basically, the ability to connect with every segment of the population that the GOP needs gains in to become relevant at the Presidential level again.

2. Over the last four Presidential Elections, the GOP has won two and lost two. The Republican won by a split decision in 2000, won by 16 electoral votes in 2004, got smoked in 2008 and again in 2012. Not exactly a strong track record to carry into 2016 (as well as the 2014 mid-term elections) so they need to reevaluate where they want the Party to go and who should be leading them into the future.

3. The Democratic Party is going to be gunning hard to take back the House in 2014 and give President Obama the ability to move legislation through Congress unabated. The Democrats picked-up seats in the Senate and in the House - so the momentum is with them. It is now entirely incumbent on the GOP to get something done or risk losing it all in just two short years.


Account Deleted said in reply to reader...

Also - Please, let's stop talking about Mitt Romney. As I said before, he wlas a poor choice for a nominee. In a year when a supposed fiscal conservative should have done well against an economically embattled incumbent, Mitt still lost by 3.5 million popular votes and 126 Electoral votes. He lost because he was out of touch with the majority of voters and did not project strong, decisive leadership.

The GOP has to take an introspective look at how they will recover and win over women, Hispanics, and socially tolerant Independents / moderate Democrats. I believe the liberty movement can accomplish those goals.

reader said...

Will,I do agree with most of what your saying, but in my opinion the GOP lost because it was a divided party and a divided party is a losing party, I don't see any major changes anytime soon . So in 2014 the divided party will be the losing party unless this administration really screws up,and based on the fact that they don't have a clue or a plan the dems could very well once again be victums of their own accord. So I would suggest that the grassroots liberal movement find a way to reach a center point to once again unite the GOP or risk this country becomming a one party rule for a very long time, and we both know what would happen to our liberties if that happens.

CNBNewsnet said...

Re: 2014 election

Add to the equation the failing economy, the turmoil in the Mid-East, the ever rising unemployment figures, the Trillions of dollars deficit, and Obamacare, just to mention a few.

If things improve the Democrats will win the majority of both the Senate and Congress but if things continue to slide downwards, which I believe will happen, that election will be the Republicans.

As we know both the Obama campaign and the Romney campaign spent over a billion of dollars on this race. A Third Party candidate, I believe, can't compete with that kind of money being spent to win the presidency.



Agree on your first point.

Agree on the second point - however, I was not referring to the liberty movement outside of the GOP (Libertarian Party) but rather the one inside the Republican Party (The Campaign for Liberty, The Ron Paul Revolution, The Republican Liberty Caucus, Freedomworks, and so on.)

If you get some time, check out the link below of the transcript for Ron Paul's farewell address to Congress. I think his words are pretty inspiring and set forward an agenda for the liberty movement after he has retired from Public Office in January. Especially enjoyable was when he calls Congress a bunch of "psychopathic authoritarians".