DVRPC predicts 11.4% increase in region’s population; 7% in City of Philadelphia
(Philadelphia, PA) – The Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) has released its 2040 population forecasts for the nine-county Delaware Valley region. The forecasts project that the region’s population will grow to 6.26 million by 2040, an increase of more than 600,000 from 2010.
The updated forecasts incorporate the latest data from the 2010 Census and account for the ongoing economic recession. Due to the recession, DVRPC forecasts slower population growth in the near term, with an increasing rate of growth between 2020 and 2030.
Chester and Gloucester counties are projected to experience the region’s greatest population increases, growing 29.8% and 30.5%, respectively. Delaware and Camden counties, home to many of the region’s older developed communities and mature suburbs, will experience the region’s slowest growth, at 2% and 2.9%, respectively.
For the first time since the 1950’s, the City of Philadelphia is expected to gain population, adding over 100,000 people between 2010 and 2040 (an increase of 6.9%). Although previous DVRPC forecasts predicted that the city would lose almost 42,000 residents between 2000 and 2010 before seeing its population stabilize after 2030, the 2010 Census instead revealed a gain of almost 9,000 residents during the decade. This positive trend is forecast to continue, as young adults continue to be attracted to the urban lifestyle and Philadelphia’s Asian and Latino populations continue to increase. Certain areas of Philadelphia, including North Philadelphia neighborhoods around Temple University and the central Delaware River waterfront, are expected to grow faster than the city as a whole, along with Fishtown, Northern Liberties, East Kensington, and parts of South Philadelphia.
The population in the region’s other core cities is expected to remain stable, with increases of 0.7% in the City of Chester, 2.8% in the City of Trenton, and 1.1% in the City of Camden. While most of the region is projected to undergo population growth in the coming decades, a few of the older boroughs and suburbs of Delaware and Camden counties are expected to experience modest losses. These losses in the region’s inner suburbs are primarily attributable to a shift to smaller household sizes and aging of the population.
To view all of the population forecasts by county, visithttp://www.dvrpc.org/OurRegion/pdf/DVRPC_2040_Population_Forecasts.pdf
DVRPC’s Long Range Plan
Population forecasts are critical in shaping DVRPC’s long-range plan, the comprehensive blueprint for the region’s future transportation facilities and services. As the region’s federally designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO), DVRPC is mandated to prepare and maintain a long-range plan with a minimum twenty-year planning horizon. The 2040 population forecasts will be used to inform the next update of the long-range plan, to be adopted in 2013. For more information, visithttp://www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/.
An interactive web map is available to view the Census data and 2040 forecasts:http://www.dvrpc.org/webmaps/Popforecast/index.htm
About the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission
DVRPC is dedicated to uniting the region’s elected officials, planning professionals and the public with the common vision of making a great region even greater. Shaping the way we live, work and play, DVRPC builds consensus on improving transportation, promoting smart growth, protecting the environment, and enhancing the economy. We serve a diverse region of nine counties: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia in Pennsylvania; and Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Mercer in New Jersey. DVRPC is the official metropolitan planning organization for the Greater Philadelphia Region - leading the way to a better future. DVRPC fully complies with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and related statutes and regulations in all programs and activities. For more information, visit www.dvrpc.org.