The point? At any given time, especially in the world of 24/7 news coverage, a major gaffe can sink an otherwise strong candidate. So the fact that many Republicans are already writing President Obama’s political obituary a year out from what will be a close election is not just naïve, but political stupidity.
And it will be a close election.
In addition to the billion-dollar war chest the President will have, the most important aspect that commentators and politicians are missing is that the popular vote—and by extension most polls—are meaningless.
The only thing that matters is getting 270 electoral votes, and Obama already has, at a minimum, 164. And when you add the states he will likely win, including electoral prize Pennsylvania, which hasn’t voted Republican in 24 years, that number rises to 224—just 46 shy of victory.
Is the President’s road difficult? Absolutely. The economy is in shambles with no possibility of a recovery until an energy policy is instituted, and that simply isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
Bank failures continue, homes are still being foreclosed at an alarming rate, inflation is rising, and companies not only aren’t hiring (let alone expanding), but are shedding jobs and closing doors. Merck is laying off 13,000, while Bank of America is jettisoning 30,000—and that’s just two companies. Job loss and uncertainty are so commonplace now that the nine percent unemployment rate has become the new norm. America is fast becoming a suburb of France.
And that doesn’t bode well for an incumbent.
CONTINUE via blogs.phillymag.com
by Chris Friend